MeritValue

Summit Hotel Properties, Inc.

INNdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.41 and $20.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$361.9M1$675.7M2$736.1M3$731.8M3$729.5M3
Net income−$65.6M4$1.22M5−$28.1M6$38.9M6−$11.7M6
Operating cash flow$66.1M7$169.6M8$153.6M9$166.3M9$149M9
Capital expenditure$20.4M10$76.5M11$89.6M12$89.3M12$75.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$45.7M7$93.1M8$64.1M9$77M9$73.6M9
Total debt$1.07B13$1.45B14$1.43B15$1.4B16$1.39B16
Cash & equivalents$64.5M17$51.3M18$37.8M19$40.6M19$36.1M19
Diluted shares104.5M105.1M105.5M132.4M106.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$80.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$130.46

10 shares is a claim on $80.69 of net worth that earned you −$1.09 and generated $6.88 of cash last year, against $130.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 1%FY23 2%FY24 1%FY25 -0%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.41 and $20.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.2%
  • fcfBase$73.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.2%
  • fcfBase$73.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$2.87
Base17.2%$7.41
Bull20.0%$9.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001497645-24-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001497645-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001497645-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001497645-22-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001497645-25-000013 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001497645-26-000015 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001497645-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001497645-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001497645-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001497645-24-000013 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001497645-25-000013 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001497645-26-000015 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001497645-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001497645-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001497645-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001497645-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001497645-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001497645-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001497645-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)