MeritValue

Ingredion Inc

INGRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ingredion Inc earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $102.2 and $668 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.89B1$7.95B2$8.16B3$7.43B3$7.22B3
Net income$117M4$492M5$643M6$647M6$729M6
Operating cash flow$392M7$152M8$1.06B9$1.44B9$944M9
Capital expenditure$300M10$300M11$314M12$295M12$433M12
Free cash flow (derived)$92M7−$148M8$743M9$1.14B9$511M9
Total debt$2.05B13$2.48B14$2.19B15$1.83B16$1.79B16
Cash & equivalents$328M17$236M18$401M19$997M20$1.03B20
Diluted shares67.8M67.0M67.0M66.6M65.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$655.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$111.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$78.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$274.54

10 shares is a claim on $655.52 of net worth that earned you $111.81 and generated $78.37 of cash last year, against $274.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 9%FY23 12%FY24 14%FY25 15%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $102.2 and $668 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$668
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$743M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$359.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$743M
Earnings Power Value
$102.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$643M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$128.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $359.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$151.16
Base20.0%$359.88
Bull20.0%$359.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001046257-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001046257-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008603 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001046257-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001046257-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008603 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001046257-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001046257-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008603 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001046257-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001046257-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008603 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001046257-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001046257-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001046257-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008603 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001046257-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001046257-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001046257-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008603 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)