MeritValue

ING GROEP NV

INGdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ING GROEP NV earns about 13% on equity, and has bought back 26% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near €21.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€20.1B1€30.4B2€18.1B3€21.1B3€25.7B3
Net income€5.95B4€12.1B5€4.14B6€5.33B6€8.32B6
Operating cash flow−€14.9B7−€11.1B8−€11.3B9−€22.5B9−€6.38B9
Capital expenditure€184M10€231M11€246M12€332M12€351M12
Free cash flow (derived)−€15.1B7−€11.3B8−€11.6B9−€22.9B9−€6.73B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents€107.7B13€95.4B14€93B14€69.1B14€54.1B14
Diluted shares3.90B3.73B3.50B3.15B2.90B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€186.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€28.68
Free cash flow it threw off
−€23.19
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on €186.34 of net worth that earned you €28.68 and generated −€23.19 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
13% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 21%FY23 8%FY24 10%FY25 15%

It earned an average 13% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−26% shares · 5y

Share count is down 26% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
€21.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€5.95B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€34.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009782 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010764 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011979 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009782 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010764 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011979 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009782 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010764 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011979 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009782 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010764 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011979 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010764 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011979 (CashAndCashEquivalents)