MeritValue

INDEPENDENT BANK CORP

INDBdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

INDEPENDENT BANK CORP earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.02 and $193.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$415.3M1$642.8M2$795.7M3$852.8M3$1.02B3
Net income$121M4$263.8M5$239.5M6$192.1M6$205.1M6
Operating cash flow$190.2M7$421.2M8$277M9$229.9M9$251.2M9
Capital expenditure$25.2M10$22.1M11$15.8M12$20.4M12$12.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$165M7$399.1M8$261.2M9$209.5M9$239M9
Total debt$126.7M13$112.7M14$112.8M15$62.9M16$359.3M16
Cash & equivalents$2.24B17$352.9M18$224.3M18$219.9M18$771.9M18
Diluted shares34.9M46.4M44.2M42.5M46.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$771.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$77.8

10 shares is a claim on $771.95 of net worth that earned you $44.41 and generated $51.75 of cash last year, against $77.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 11%FY23 14%FY24 22%FY25 24%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 184% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.02 and $193.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$193.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.1%
  • fcfBase$239M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$137.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.1%
  • fcfBase$239M
Earnings Power Value
$46.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$205.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$87.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $137.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$82.87
Base13.1%$137.67
Bull18.1%$165.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776901-24-000069 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776901-25-000093 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000776901-26-000058 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776901-24-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776901-25-000093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000776901-26-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776901-24-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776901-25-000093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000776901-26-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776901-24-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776901-25-000093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000776901-26-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776901-23-000064 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776901-24-000069 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000776901-25-000093 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000776901-26-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776901-25-000093 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776901-26-000058 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)