INCYTE CORP
INCYdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on fileINCYTE CORP earns about 32% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.86 and $69.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.99B1 | $3.39B2 | $3.7B3 | $4.24B3 | $5.14B3 |
| Net income | $948.6M4 | $340.7M5 | $597.6M6 | $32.6M6 | $1.29B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $749.5M7 | $969.9M8 | $496.5M9 | $335.3M9 | $1.41B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $181M10 | $77.8M10 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $568.5M7 | $892.1M8 | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.06B11 | $2.95B12 | $3.21B13 | $1.69B14 | $3.1B14 |
| Diluted shares | 222.1M | 224.0M | 225.9M | 210.5M | 200.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $257.47 of net worth that earned you $64.11 last year.
It earned about 32% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.86 and $69.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$568.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$568.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$597.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $55.91 |
| Base | 5.0% | $65.7 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $77.42 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879169-24-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004633 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879169-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879169-24-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004633 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879169-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879169-24-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004633 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879169-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879169-23-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879169-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879169-24-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004633 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000879169-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)