Imperial Petroleum Inc./Marshall Islands

IMPPdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Imperial Petroleum Inc./Marshall Islands earns about 10% on equity, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11281% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.29 and $84.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.4M1$97M2$183.7M3$147.5M3$161M3
Net income−$3.64M4$29.5M5$71.1M6$50.2M6$50M6
Operating cash flow$5.24M7$40.9M8$79.5M9$77.7M9$80.8M9
Capital expenditure$142,60010$118.7M11$28.1M12$74.7M12$1.71M12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.1M7−$77.8M8$51.4M9$3.02M9$79.1M9
Total debt$55.8M13$140.4M14$014
Cash & equivalents$3.39M15$50.9M16$91.9M16$67.8M17$5.77M17
Diluted shares318,3518.6M22.9M33.0M36.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$146.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.83
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $146.51 of net worth that earned you $13.79 and generated $21.83 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 10%FY23 20%FY24 12%FY25 9%

It earned about 10% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11281% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11281% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.29 and $84.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$84.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$51.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$51.4M
Earnings Power Value
$14.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$50M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.4
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.42
Base20.0%$46.4
Bull20.0%$46.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-094635 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-104005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-192203 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-094635 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-104005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-192203 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-094635 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-104005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-192203 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-094635 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-104005 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-192203 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-089710 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-094635 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-094635 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-104005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-192203 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)