MeritValue

Insight Molecular Diagnostics Inc.

IMDXdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Insight Molecular Diagnostics Inc. earns about -137% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 34174% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.2M1$958,0002$1.5M3$1.88M4$4.06M4
Net income−$64.1M5−$72.9M6−$27.8M7−$60.7M8−$50.2M8
Operating cash flow−$35.9M9−$45.6M10−$23.3M11−$20.7M12−$22.2M12
Capital expenditure$2.25M13$4.34M14$281,00015$516,00016$3.19M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$38.2M9−$49.9M10−$23.6M11−$21.2M12−$25.4M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$32.9M17$20M18$9.43M19$8.64M20$11.6M20
Diluted shares88,9205.5M7.7M13.1M30.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$10.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.48
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.32
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$10.32 of net worth that earned you −$16.48 and generated −$8.32 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-137% avg · 5y
FY21 -130%FY22 -103%FY23 -178%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -137% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+34174% shares · 5y

Share count is up 34174% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014720 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043852 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001642380-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014720 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043852 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001642380-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014720 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043852 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001642380-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014720 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043852 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001642380-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014720 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043852 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001642380-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)