ILLUMINA, INC.
ILMNdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on fileILLUMINA, INC. earns about -19% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $157.27 and $280.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.53B1 | $4.58B2 | $4.5B3 | $4.37B3 | $4.34B3 |
| Net income | $762M4 | −$4.4B5 | −$1.16B6 | −$1.22B6 | $850M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $545M7 | $392M8 | $478M9 | $837M9 | $1.08B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $208M10 | $286M11 | $195M12 | $128M12 | $148M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $337M7 | $106M8 | $283M9 | $709M9 | $931M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.23B13 | $2.01B14 | $1.05B14 | $1.13B14 | $1.42B14 |
| Diluted shares | 151.0M | 157.0M | 158.0M | 159.0M | 156.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $174.55 of net worth that earned you $54.49 and generated $59.68 of cash last year.
It earned about -19% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $157.27 and $280.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$709M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$709M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $74.03 |
| Base | 20.0% | $157.27 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $157.27 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001110803-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001110803-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001110803-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001110803-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001110803-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001110803-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001110803-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001110803-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001110803-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001110803-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001110803-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001110803-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001110803-25-000019 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001110803-26-000024 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)