MeritValue

INSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC

IIINdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

INSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.73 and $30.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$590.6M1$826.8M2$649.2M3$529.2M3$647.7M3
Net income$66.6M4$125M5$32.4M6$19.3M6$41M6
Operating cash flow$69.9M7$5.67M8$142.2M9$58.2M9$27.2M9
Capital expenditure$17.5M10$15.9M11$30.7M12$19.1M12$8.21M12
Free cash flow (derived)$52.4M7−$10.2M8$111.5M9$39.1M9$19M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$89.9M13$48.3M14$125.7M15$111.5M16$38.6M16
Diluted shares19.5M19.6M19.6M19.6M19.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$189.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.69
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $189.96 of net worth that earned you $20.97 and generated $9.69 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 31%FY22 37%FY23 13%FY24 8%FY25 12%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.73 and $30.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$39.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$39.1M
Earnings Power Value
$21.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$41M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.51
Base0.0%$30.51
Bull5.0%$37.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001437749-23-029056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001437749-24-031988 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-031597 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001437749-23-029056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001437749-24-031988 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-031597 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001437749-23-029056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001437749-24-031988 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-031597 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001437749-23-029056 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001437749-24-031988 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-031597 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001437749-22-024897 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001437749-23-029056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-031988 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001437749-25-031597 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)