IHS Holding Ltd
IHSdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on fileIHS Holding Ltd earns about -7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.57 and $14.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.58B1 | $1.96B2 | $1.93B3 | $1.53B3 | $1.58B3 |
| Net income | −$25.8M4 | −$459M5 | −$1.98B6 | −$1.63B6 | $143.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $750.2M7 | $907.3M8 | $853.5M9 | $729.4M9 | $936.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $238.1M10 | $378.5M11 | $464.9M12 | $235.2M12 | $217.5M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $512M7 | $528.8M8 | $388.6M9 | $494.2M9 | $718.7M9 |
| Total debt | $2.61B13 | $3.34B14 | $3.51B15 | $3.35B15 | $3.14B15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $916.5M16 | $514.1M16 | $293.8M16 | $578M17 | $825.7M17 |
| Diluted shares | 327.8M | 331.9M | 331.9M | 333.4M | 335.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on −$7.49 of net worth that earned you $4.28 and generated $21.42 of cash last year, against $93.52 of debt.
It earned about -7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 20% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.57 and $14.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$494.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$494.2M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $14.15 |
| Base | 0.0% | $14.15 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $19.25 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002949 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003172 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028162 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002949 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003172 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028162 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002949 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003172 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028162 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002949 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003172 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028162 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002949 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003172 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028162 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003172 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028162 (CashAndCashEquivalents)