MeritValue

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC /NEW/

IHGdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $39.51 and $173.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.91B1$3.89B2$4.62B3$4.92B3$5.19B3
Net income$266M4$375M5$750M6$628M6$758M6
Operating cash flow$636M7$646M8$893M9$724M9$898M9
Capital expenditure$17M10$54M11$28M12$29M12$28M12
Free cash flow (derived)$619M7$592M8$865M9$695M9$870M9
Total debt$2.85B13$2.4B14$3.17B15$3.27B16$4.2B16
Cash & equivalents$1.45B17$976M18$1.32B19$1.01B20$1.13B20
Diluted shares187.7M183.1M172.3M164.7M164.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$166.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$46.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$255.05

10 shares is a claim on −$166.41 of net worth that earned you $46.02 and generated $52.82 of cash last year, against $255.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 48% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.51 and $173.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$173.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.5%
  • fcfBase$865M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$113.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.5%
  • fcfBase$865M
Earnings Power Value
$39.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$628M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $113.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.38
Base13.5%$113.75
Bull18.5%$142.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051757 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-037543 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000858446-26-000010 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051757 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-037543 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000858446-26-000010 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051757 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-037543 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000858446-26-000010 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051757 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-037543 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000858446-26-000010 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-057355 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051757 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-037543 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000858446-26-000010 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-057355 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051757 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-037543 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000858446-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalents)