MeritValue

IES Holdings, Inc.

IESCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

IES Holdings, Inc. earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.6 and $565.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.54B1$2.17B2$2.38B3$2.88B3$3.37B3
Net income$66.7M4$34.8M5$108.3M6$219.1M6$306M6
Operating cash flow$37.9M7$16.3M8$153.9M9$234.4M9$286.1M9
Capital expenditure$7.4M10$29.3M11$17.7M12$45.2M12$67.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$30.5M7−$13M8$136.2M9$189.2M9$218.8M9
Total debt$39.7M13$163.3M14$015$016$016
Cash & equivalents$23.1M17$24.8M18$75.8M19$100.8M20$127.2M20
Diluted shares21.1M20.9M20.4M20.4M20.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$437.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$151.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$108.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $437.97 of net worth that earned you $151.6 and generated $108.43 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 8%FY23 33%FY24 46%FY25 39%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.6 and $565.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$565.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$189.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$312.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$189.2M
Earnings Power Value
$55.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$108.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$121.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $312.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$140.27
Base20.0%$312.01
Bull20.0%$312.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048268-23-000097 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048268-24-000134 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048268-25-000174 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048268-23-000097 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048268-24-000134 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048268-25-000174 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048268-23-000097 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048268-24-000134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048268-25-000174 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048268-23-000097 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048268-24-000134 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048268-25-000174 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048268-22-000099 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048268-23-000097 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048268-24-000134 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001048268-25-000174 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048268-24-000134 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048268-25-000174 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048268-24-000134 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001048268-25-000174 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)