MeritValue

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.

IDYAdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. earns about -18% on equity, but has diluted owners by 151% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.9M1$50.9M2$23.4M3$7M3$218.7M3
Net income−$49.8M4−$58.7M5−$113M6−$274.5M6−$113.7M6
Operating cash flow−$55.8M7−$87.2M8−$115.2M9−$247.6M9−$71.1M9
Capital expenditure$2.64M10$3.44M11$2.37M12$3.86M12$2.37M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$58.4M7−$90.6M8−$117.6M9−$251.4M9−$73.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$92M13$68.6M14$157M15$84.4M15$112.8M15
Diluted shares35.3M41.4M57.5M81.7M88.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$115.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.85
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.3
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $115.61 of net worth that earned you −$12.85 and generated −$8.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-18% avg · 5y
FY21 -17%FY22 -17%FY23 -18%FY24 -26%FY25 -11%

It earned an average -18% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+151% shares · 5y

Share count is up 151% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022183 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054533 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022183 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054533 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022183 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054533 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022183 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054533 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022183 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054533 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)