MeritValue

ICU MEDICAL INC/DE

ICUIdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ICU MEDICAL INC/DE earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.73 and $12.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.32B1$2.28B2$2.26B3$2.38B3$2.23B3
Net income$103.1M4−$74.3M5−$29.7M6−$117.7M6$732,0006
Operating cash flow$267.5M7−$62.1M8$166.2M9$204M9$179.8M9
Capital expenditure$68.5M10$90.3M11$83.9M12$79.4M12$88M12
Free cash flow (derived)$199M7−$152.4M8$82.3M9$124.7M9$91.8M9
Total debt$013$1.68B14$1.68B15$1.63B16$1.3B16
Cash & equivalents$552.8M17$208.8M17$254.2M18$308.6M18$308M18
Diluted shares21.8M23.9M24.1M24.4M24.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$852.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$523.38

10 shares is a claim on $852.8 of net worth that earned you $0.29 and generated $36.86 of cash last year, against $523.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 1%FY24 1%FY25 2%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.73 and $12.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$91.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$91.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$7.59
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.7
Base0.0%$12.7
Bull5.0%$25.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883984-24-000005 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883984-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883984-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883984-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883984-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883984-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883984-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883984-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883984-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883984-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883984-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883984-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883984-23-000009 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883984-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883984-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000883984-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883984-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883984-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)