MeritValue

Icon Energy Corp

ICONdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Icon Energy Corp earns about 5% on equity, but has diluted owners by 7856% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$43,0001$1.67M1
Net income$4.24M2$1.16M3−$210,0003−$4.2M3
Operating cash flow$3.99M4$2.51M5$864,0005$799,0005
Capital expenditure$225,0006$22,0007$18M7$6.09M7
Free cash flow (derived)$3.76M4$2.48M5−$17.2M5−$5.29M5
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$3.55M8$2.7M9$946,0009$3.88M9
Diluted shares5,0001,0003,903397,776

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$537.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$105.51
Free cash flow it threw off
−$132.91
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $537.44 of net worth that earned you −$105.51 and generated −$132.91 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
5% avg · 4y
FY22 30%FY23 13%FY24 -2%FY25 -20%

It earned an average 5% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7856% shares · 4y

Share count is up 7856% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$12.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$472,500
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006582 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-015619 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006582 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-015619 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006582 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-015619 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006582 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-015619 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006582 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)