MeritValue

ICON PLC

ICLRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ICON PLC earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $66.31 and $742.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.48B1$7.74B2$8.05B3$8.19B3$8.25B3
Net income$153.2M4$505.3M5$554.2M6$739.1M6$229.3M6
Operating cash flow$829.1M7$563.3M8$1.16B9$1.29B9$1.04B9
Capital expenditure$93.8M10$142.2M11$140.7M12$168.1M12$174.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$735.4M7$421.2M8$1.02B9$1.12B9$862M9
Total debt$10.9B13$9.3B14$7.47B15$3.4B15$2.87B15
Cash & equivalents$752.2M16$288.8M17$378.1M18$538.8M18$647.3M18
Diluted shares68.1M82.5M82.7M83.0M79.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,164.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$109.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$363.78

10 shares is a claim on $1,164.23 of net worth that earned you $29.04 and generated $109.16 of cash last year, against $363.78 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 8%FY25 4%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 74% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $66.31 and $742.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$742.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.02B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$393.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.02B
Earnings Power Value
$66.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$505.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$87.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $393.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$156.44
Base20.0%$393.1
Bull20.0%$393.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060955-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060955-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038487 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060955-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060955-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038487 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060955-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060955-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038487 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060955-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060955-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038487 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060955-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060955-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038487 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060955-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060955-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038487 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)