MeritValue

ICHOR HOLDINGS, LTD.

ICHRdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ICHOR HOLDINGS, LTD. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.41 and $13.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.1B1$1.28B2$811.1M3$849M3$947.7M3
Net income$70.9M4$72.8M5−$43M6−$20.8M6−$52.8M6
Operating cash flow$15.3M7$31.5M8$57.6M9$27.9M9$29.9M9
Capital expenditure$20.8M10$29.4M11$15.5M12$17.6M12$36.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.57M7$2.02M8$42.1M9$10.2M9−$6.28M9
Total debt$585.5M13$601.4M14$497.4M15$257M16$247.1M16
Cash & equivalents$75.5M17$86.5M18$80M19$108.7M20$98.3M20
Diluted shares29.0M29.0M29.2M32.8M34.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$193.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.42
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$72.17

10 shares is a claim on $193.94 of net worth that earned you −$15.42 and generated −$1.84 of cash last year, against $72.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 -1%FY24 -2%FY25 -5%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 58% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.41 and $13.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$10.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$10.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$0.07
Base20.0%$5.41
Bull20.0%$5.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006527 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-25-006992 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001652535-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006527 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-25-006992 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001652535-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006527 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-25-006992 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001652535-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006527 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-25-006992 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001652535-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002383 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-24-006527 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-006992 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-27 · accession 0001652535-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002383 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-24-006527 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-006992 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-27 · accession 0001652535-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)