MeritValue

Intchains Group Ltd

ICGdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Intchains Group Ltd earns about 37% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$68.7M1$11.6M2$38.6M3$31.6M4
Net income$51.5M5−$3.78M6$7.05M7−$6.8M8
Operating cash flow$47.4M9−$665,00010−$18.9M11−$13.3M12
Capital expenditure$583,00013$6.61M14$1.38M15$674,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$46.8M9−$7.27M10−$20.3M11−$14M12
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$103.3M17$97.9M18$44.1M19$31.7M20
Diluted shares117.6M119.4M120.0M120.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.56
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.15
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $11.55 of net worth that earned you −$0.56 and generated −$1.15 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
37% avg · 4y
FY22 160%FY23 -11%FY24 7%FY25 -9%

It earned an average 37% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 4y

Share count is up 3% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.64M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-123984 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-070138 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-105589 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016360 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-123984 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-070138 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-105589 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016360 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-123984 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-070138 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-105589 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016360 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-123984 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-070138 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-105589 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016360 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-123984 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-070138 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-105589 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016360 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)