MeritValue

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

ICEdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $49.63 and $214.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.17B1$9.64B2$9.9B3$11.8B3$12.6B3
Net income$4.06B4$1.45B5$2.37B6$2.75B6$3.32B6
Operating cash flow$3.12B7$3.55B8$3.54B9$4.61B9$4.66B9
Capital expenditure$179M10$225M11$190M12$406M12$373M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.94B7$3.33B8$3.35B9$4.2B9$4.29B9
Total debt$30.4B13$36.2B14$26.5B15$23.9B16$21.7B16
Cash & equivalents$148B17$1.8B18$899M19$844M19$837M19
Diluted shares565.0M561.0M565.0M576.0M575.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$502.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$57.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$74.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$377.63

10 shares is a claim on $502.87 of net worth that earned you $57.65 and generated $74.59 of cash last year, against $377.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 4%FY23 6%FY24 6%FY25 7%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 28% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $49.63 and $214.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$214.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.6%
  • fcfBase$4.2B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$141.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.6%
  • fcfBase$4.2B
Earnings Power Value
$49.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.75B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$80.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $141.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$68.13
Base12.6%$141.59
Bull17.6%$180.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571949-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571949-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571949-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571949-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571949-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571949-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571949-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571949-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571949-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571949-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571949-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571949-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571949-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571949-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571949-25-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001571949-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571949-25-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571949-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571949-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)