Ibotta, Inc.
IBTAdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileIbotta, Inc. earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 247% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.18 and $154.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $210.7M1 | $320M2 | $367.3M2 | $342.4M2 |
| Net income | −$54.9M3 | $38.1M4 | $68.7M4 | $3.58M4 |
| Operating cash flow | −$56.5M5 | $22.7M6 | $115.9M6 | $95.3M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $785,0007 | $548,0008 | $871,0008 | $20.3M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$57.3M5 | $22.2M6 | $115M6 | $75M6 |
| Total debt | — | $128.9M9 | $09 | $010 |
| Cash & equivalents | $17.8M11 | $62.6M12 | $349.3M13 | $186.6M13 |
| Diluted shares | 8.7M | 26.9M | 26.9M | 30.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $95.56 of net worth that earned you $1.19 and generated $24.91 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.
It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 247% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.18 and $154.77 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$75M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$75M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$20.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $41.79 |
| Base | 20.0% | $87.42 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $87.42 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008240 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011838 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008240 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011838 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008240 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008240 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011838 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008240 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011838 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011838 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008240 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011838 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)