MeritValue

Installed Building Products, Inc.

IBPdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Installed Building Products, Inc. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $92.41 and $554.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.97B1$2.67B2$2.78B3$2.94B3$2.97B3
Net income$118.8M4$223.4M5$243.7M6$256.6M6$265.4M6
Operating cash flow$138.3M7$277.9M8$340.2M9$340M9$371.4M9
Capital expenditure$37M10$45.6M11$61.6M12$88.6M12$70.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$101.3M7$232.3M8$278.6M9$251.4M9$300.8M9
Total debt$1.73B13$1.72B14$1.73B15$1.75B16$1.77B16
Cash & equivalents$333.5M17$229.6M18$386.5M19$327.6M20$321.9M20
Diluted shares29.6M28.9M28.3M28.2M27.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$259.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$97.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$110.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$648.86

10 shares is a claim on $259.77 of net worth that earned you $97.12 and generated $110.07 of cash last year, against $648.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 13%FY23 13%FY24 12%FY25 12%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $92.41 and $554.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$554.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$278.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$279.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$278.6M
Earnings Power Value
$92.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$243.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$75.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $279.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$92.55
Base20.0%$279.28
Bull20.0%$279.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580905-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580905-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580905-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580905-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580905-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580905-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580905-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580905-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580905-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580905-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580905-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580905-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580905-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580905-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580905-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001580905-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580905-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580905-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580905-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001580905-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)