MeritValue

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.

IBKRdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. earns about 74% on equity, but has diluted owners by 367% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $65.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.57B1$1.51B2$1.56B3$1.98B3$2.44B3
Net income$1.64B4$1.84B5$2.81B6$3.41B6$4.36B6
Operating cash flow$5.9B7$3.97B8$4.54B9$8.72B9$15.8B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.4B10$3.44B11$3.75B12$3.63B12$4.96B12
Diluted shares95.0M101.3M423.4M436.0M443.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$120.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$98.16
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $120.83 of net worth that earned you $98.16 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
74% avg · 5y
FY21 68%FY22 65%FY23 78%FY24 80%FY25 81%

It earned an average 74% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+367% shares · 5y

Share count is up 367% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$65.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.81B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001381197-24-000083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001381197-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001381197-26-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001381197-24-000083 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001381197-25-000036 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001381197-26-000062 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001381197-24-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001381197-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001381197-26-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001381197-24-000083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001381197-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001381197-26-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)