MeritValue

INDEPENDENT BANK CORP /MI/

IBCPdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

INDEPENDENT BANK CORP /MI/ earns about 45% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.63 and $54.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.1M1$31.6M2$32.9M3$32M3$32.1M3
Net income$62.9M4$63.4M5$59.1M6$66.8M6$68.5M6
Operating cash flow$110.2M7$94.6M8$75.6M9$63.2M9$76.7M9
Capital expenditure$5.84M10$5.68M11$6.02M12$7.95M12$6.49M12
Free cash flow (derived)$104.3M7$89M8$69.6M9$55.2M9$70.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$109.5M13$74.4M14$169.8M15$119.9M16$138.4M16
Diluted shares21.6M21.1M21.0M20.9M20.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$242.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $242.29 of net worth that earned you $33.02 and generated $33.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
45% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 29%FY23 54%FY24 60%FY25 60%

It earned about 45% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.63 and $54.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$50.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$69.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$54.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$69.6M
Earnings Power Value
$31.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$63.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $54.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$54.55
Base0.0%$54.55
Bull5.0%$66.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039311-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039311-25-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039311-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039311-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039311-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039311-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039311-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039311-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039311-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039311-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039311-25-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039311-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039311-23-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039311-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039311-25-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000039311-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)