MeritValue

MARINEMAX INC

HZOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MARINEMAX INC earns about 14% on invested capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $51.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.06B1$2.31B2$2.39B3$2.43B3$2.31B3
Net income$155M4$198M5$109.3M6$38.1M6−$31.6M6
Operating cash flow$373.9M7$76.6M8−$222.2M9−$25.7M9$72.8M9
Capital expenditure$26.1M10$58.5M11$65.4M12$60.4M12$60.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$347.8M7$18.1M8−$287.6M9−$86.1M9$11.9M9
Total debt$126.7M13$228.9M14$1.38B15$1.49B16$1.5B16
Cash & equivalents$222.2M17$228.3M18$201.5M19$224.3M20$170.4M20
Diluted shares22.9M22.4M22.4M23.0M22.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$424.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$680.52

10 shares is a claim on $424.99 of net worth that earned you −$14.34 and generated $5.42 of cash last year, against $680.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 32%FY22 26%FY23 7%FY24 4%FY25 1%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 1084% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$51.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$109.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064785 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-284680 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064785 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-284680 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064785 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-284680 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064785 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-284680 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-025440 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064785 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-284680 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-025440 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064785 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-284680 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)