MeritValue

HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC.

HYFMdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC. earns about -42% on invested capital, and has bought back 89% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$479.4M1$344.5M2$226.6M3$190.3M4$134.3M4
Net income$13.4M5−$285.4M6−$64.8M7−$66.7M8−$289.8M8
Operating cash flow−$45.1M9$22M10$7.04M11−$324,00012−$14.1M12
Capital expenditure$5.4M13$8.23M14$4.22M15$2.89M16$1.02M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$50.5M9$13.8M10$2.83M11−$3.22M12−$15.1M12
Total debt$247.2M17$237.5M18$236.8M19$231.9M20$223.8M20
Cash & equivalents$26.6M21$21.3M22$30.3M23$26.1M24$6.31M24
Diluted shares43.0M45.0M4.6M4.6M4.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$136.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$623.48
Free cash flow it threw off
−$32.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$481.52

10 shares is a claim on −$136.18 of net worth that earned you −$623.48 and generated −$32.45 of cash last year, against $481.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-42% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -39%FY23 -8%FY24 -12%FY25 -149%

It earned an average -42% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−89% shares · 5y

Share count is down 89% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007313 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007813 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010266 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001695295-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007313 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007813 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010266 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001695295-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007313 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007813 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010266 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001695295-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007313 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007813 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010266 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001695295-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-004557 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007813 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010266 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001695295-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007313 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007813 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010266 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001695295-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)