MeritValue

HYSTER-YALE, INC.

HYdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HYSTER-YALE, INC. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $179.21 and $355.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.08B1$3.55B2$4.12B3$4.31B3$3.77B3
Net income−$173M4−$74.1M5$125.9M6$142.3M6−$60.1M6
Operating cash flow−$253.5M7$40.6M8$150.7M9$170.7M9$86.1M9
Capital expenditure$44.3M10$28.8M11$35.4M12$47.8M12$62.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$297.8M7$11.8M8$115.3M9$122.9M9$23.6M9
Total debt$1.01B13$1.08B14$960.7M15$858M16$715.8M17
Cash & equivalents$65.5M18$59M19$78.8M19$96.6M19$123.2M19
Diluted shares16.8M16.9M17.4M17.7M17.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$267.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$34.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$405.09

10 shares is a claim on $267.12 of net worth that earned you −$34.01 and generated $13.36 of cash last year, against $405.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -8%FY22 -2%FY23 12%FY24 13%FY25 -1%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 29% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $179.21 and $355.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$355.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$115.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$179.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$115.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $179.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.69
Base20.0%$179.21
Bull20.0%$179.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001173514-24-000014 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001173514-25-000015 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001173514-26-000049 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001173514-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001173514-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001173514-26-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001173514-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001173514-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001173514-26-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001173514-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001173514-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001173514-26-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001173514-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001173514-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001173514-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001173514-26-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001173514-26-000049 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001173514-22-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001173514-26-000049 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)