MeritValue

HEXCEL CORP /DE/

HXLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HEXCEL CORP /DE/ earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.17 and $37.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.32B1$1.58B2$1.79B3$1.9B3$1.89B3
Net income$16.1M4$126.3M5$105.7M6$132.1M6$109.4M6
Operating cash flow$151.7M7$173.1M8$257.1M9$289.9M9$230.5M9
Capital expenditure$27.9M10$76.3M11$108.2M12$87M12$73.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$123.8M7$96.8M8$148.9M9$202.9M9$157.2M9
Total debt$823.3M13$723.5M14$699.5M15$700.7M16$993M16
Cash & equivalents$127.7M17$112M18$227M19$125.4M20$71M20
Diluted shares84.6M85.0M85.5M83.0M80.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$156.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$124.13

10 shares is a claim on $156.34 of net worth that earned you $13.67 and generated $19.65 of cash last year, against $124.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 8%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.17 and $37.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$37.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.3%
  • fcfBase$157.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$28.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.3%
  • fcfBase$157.2M
Earnings Power Value
$14.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$109.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $28.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.55
Base8.3%$28.53
Bull13.3%$37.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012245 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-014412 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046377 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012245 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-014412 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046377 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012245 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-014412 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046377 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012245 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-014412 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046377 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002099 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012245 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-014412 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046377 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012245 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-014412 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046377 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)