MeritValue

Haoxin Holdings Ltd

HXHXdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Haoxin Holdings Ltd earns about 21% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.9M1$26.7M2$25.6M2$33M2
Net income$4.29M3$3.97M4$3.17M4$3.97M4
Operating cash flow−$433,8805$933,4896−$3.96M6−$9.55M6
Capital expenditure$66,7407$12,1508$4,3038$4.48M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$500,6205$921,3396−$3.96M6−$14M6
Total debt—$3.24M9$2.97M9$7.79M10
Cash & equivalents$101,67011$86,28712$170,43113$1.4M13
Diluted shares12.0M12.0M12.0M13.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.88

10 shares is a claim on $20.85 of net worth that earned you $3 and generated −$10.59 of cash last year, against $5.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 4y
FY22 36%FY23 21%FY24 15%FY25 12%

It earned an average 21% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 4y

Share count is up 10% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 141% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.97M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037634 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050203 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037634 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050203 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037634 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050203 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037634 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050203 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037634 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050203 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050203 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037634 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050203 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)