MeritValue

HAWKINS INC

HWKNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HAWKINS INC earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.44 and $222.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$774.5M1$935.1M2$919.2M3$974.4M3$1.08B3
Net income$51.5M4$60M5$75.4M6$84.3M6$81.5M6
Operating cash flow$42.8M7$77.4M8$159.5M9$111.1M9$144.3M9
Capital expenditure$28.5M10$48.3M11$40.2M12$41.1M12$58.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$14.3M7$29.1M8$119.3M9$70M9$86.1M9
Total debt$125.6M13$111.6M14$98.7M15$307.9M16$488M16
Cash & equivalents$3.5M17$7.57M18$7.15M19$5.1M20$3.91M20
Diluted shares21.1M21.0M21.0M20.9M20.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$255.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$233.92

10 shares is a claim on $255.97 of net worth that earned you $39.09 and generated $41.27 of cash last year, against $233.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY22 12%FY23 12%FY24 15%FY25 11%FY26 7%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 289% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.44 and $222.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$222.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$86.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$111.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$86.1M
Earnings Power Value
$37.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$75.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $111.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.76
Base20.0%$111.34
Bull20.0%$111.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-03 · accession 0000046250-24-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-02 · accession 0000046250-25-000025 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000046250-26-000018 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-03 · accession 0000046250-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-02 · accession 0000046250-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000046250-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-03 · accession 0000046250-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-02 · accession 0000046250-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000046250-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-03 · accession 0000046250-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-02 · accession 0000046250-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000046250-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-03 · accession 0000046250-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-02 · accession 0000046250-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000046250-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-30 · accession 0000046250-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-03 · accession 0000046250-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-02 · accession 0000046250-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000046250-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-30 · accession 0000046250-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)