MeritValue

HANCOCK WHITNEY CORP

HWCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HANCOCK WHITNEY CORP earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.89 and $79.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$982.3M1$1.14B2$1.62B3$1.69B3$1.61B3
Net income——$392.6M4$460.8M4$486.1M4
Operating cash flow$585.7M5$842M6$495.2M7$625.7M7$541.8M7
Capital expenditure$23.5M8$29.1M9$25M10$10.2M10$18.7M10
Free cash flow (derived)$562.1M5$812.9M6$470.2M7$615.5M7$523.1M7
Total debt$1.91B11$2.11B12$1.39B13$849.6M14$1.22B14
Cash & equivalents$401.2M15$564.5M16$561.2M16$574.9M16$563M16
Diluted shares87.0M86.4M86.4M86.6M85.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$522.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$56.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$142.4

10 shares is a claim on $522.02 of net worth that earned you $56.89 and generated $61.22 of cash last year, against $142.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 12%FY23 18%FY24 30%FY25 27%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 36% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.89 and $79.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$73.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$523.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$79.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$523.1M
Earnings Power Value
$55.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$460.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$81.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $79.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$79.82
Base0.0%$79.82
Bull5.0%$100.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022252 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028009 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077903 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077903 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022252 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077903 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022252 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077903 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004433 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022252 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077903 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077903 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)