MeritValue

HAWTHORN BANCSHARES, INC.

HWBKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HAWTHORN BANCSHARES, INC. earns about 106% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.98 and $80.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.5M1$69.3M2$92M3$95.4M3$97.7M3
Net income$22.5M4$20.8M5$956,0006$18.3M6$23.8M6
Operating cash flow$30.2M7$20.3M8$17.6M9$25.6M9$26.9M9
Capital expenditure$591,00010$2.57M11$2.1M12$3M12$4.08M12
Free cash flow (derived)$29.6M7$17.7M8$15.5M9$22.6M9$22.8M9
Total debt$23.8M13$5.19M14$014——
Cash & equivalents$159.9M15$83.7M16$93.5M17$51M18$104.3M18
Diluted shares7.1M7.1M7.0M7.0M6.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$250.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.9
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $250.98 of net worth that earned you $34.29 and generated $32.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
106% avg · 5y
FY21 212%FY22 60%FY23 78%FY24 67%FY25 111%

It earned about 106% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.98 and $80.52 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$80.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.6%
  • fcfBase$22.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$74.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.6%
  • fcfBase$22.6M
Earnings Power Value
$30.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $74.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$61.52
Base5.6%$74.23
Bull10.6%$87.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893847-24-000002 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893847-25-000002 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893847-26-000037 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893847-24-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893847-25-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893847-26-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893847-24-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893847-25-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893847-26-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893847-24-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893847-25-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893847-26-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893847-23-000005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893847-24-000002 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893847-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893847-24-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893847-25-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000893847-26-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)