MeritValue

Huron Consulting Group Inc.

HURNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Huron Consulting Group Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $43.52 and $579.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$905.6M1$1.13B2$1.36B3$1.49B3$1.66B3
Net income$63M4$75.6M5$62.5M6$116.6M6$105M6
Operating cash flow$18M7$85.4M8$135.3M9$201.3M9$193.4M9
Capital expenditure$10.9M10$12.5M11$9.44M12$8.65M12$10.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.12M7$72.9M8$125.8M9$192.7M9$183M9
Total debt$465.6M13$580M14$324M15$356.6M16$509.7M16
Cash & equivalents$20.8M17$11.8M18$12.1M19$21.9M20$24.5M20
Diluted shares21.8M20.7M19.6M18.6M18.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$293.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$101.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$283.29

10 shares is a claim on $293.83 of net worth that earned you $58.38 and generated $101.69 of cash last year, against $283.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 7%FY23 7%FY24 13%FY25 10%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $43.52 and $579.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$579.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$183M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$304.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$183M
Earnings Power Value
$43.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$75.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$62.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $304.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$118.33
Base20.0%$304.59
Bull20.0%$304.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289848-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289848-25-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289848-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289848-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289848-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289848-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289848-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289848-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289848-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289848-24-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289848-25-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011093 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289848-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289848-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289848-25-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)