MeritValue

Huntsman CORP

HUNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Huntsman CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.67B1$8.02B2$6.11B3$6.04B3$5.68B3
Net income$1.05B4$460M5$101M6−$189M6−$284M6
Operating cash flow$952M7$914M8$209M9$263M9$289M9
Capital expenditure$326M10$272M11$230M12$184M12$173M12
Free cash flow (derived)$626M7$642M8−$21M9$79M9$116M9
Total debt$3.1B13$3.47B14$3.38B15$3.67B16$4.02B16
Cash & equivalents$1.04B17$654M18$540M19$340M20$429M20
Diluted shares221.4M203.0M177.4M172.1M172.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$159.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$233.02

10 shares is a claim on $159.33 of net worth that earned you −$16.45 and generated $6.72 of cash last year, against $233.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 8%FY23 1%FY24 -0%FY25 -2%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$79M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$79M
Earnings Power Value
$6.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$101M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005185 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004205 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004524 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005185 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004205 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004524 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005185 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004205 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004524 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005185 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004205 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004524 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-003950 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005185 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004205 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004524 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-003950 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005185 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004205 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004524 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)