MeritValue

Humacyte, Inc.

HUMAdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Humacyte, Inc. earns about -541% on equity, but has diluted owners by 296% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue———$01$2.04M1
Net income−$26.5M2−$12M3−$110.8M4−$148.7M5−$40.8M5
Operating cash flow−$81.2M6−$71.1M7−$73.3M8−$98.1M9−$105M9
Capital expenditure$220,00010$1.05M11$2.28M12$1.57M13$884,00013
Free cash flow (derived)−$81.4M6−$72.2M7−$75.6M8−$99.7M9−$105.9M9
Total debt$30M14——$015$35.4M15
Cash & equivalents$217.5M16$149.8M17$80.4M18$44.9M19$50.5M19
Diluted shares40.0M103.1M103.4M118.5M158.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.58
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.24

10 shares is a claim on $0.2 of net worth that earned you −$2.58 and generated −$6.7 of cash last year, against $2.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-541% avg · 5y
FY21 -22%FY22 -10%FY23 -818%FY24 —FY25 -1313%

It earned an average -541% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+296% shares · 5y

Share count is up 296% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 18% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818382-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818382-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818382-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818382-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818382-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818382-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818382-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818382-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818382-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818382-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818382-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818382-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818382-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818382-22-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818382-26-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818382-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818382-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818382-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818382-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)