MeritValue

HUMANA INC

HUMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HUMANA INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $193.84 and $215.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.06B1$4.78B2$4.03B3$4.43B3$5.83B3
Net income$2.93B4$2.81B5$2.49B6$1.21B6$1.19B6
Operating cash flow$2.26B7$4.59B8$3.98B9$2.97B9$921M9
Capital expenditure$1.34B10$1.14B11$1B12$575M12$546M12
Free cash flow (derived)$920M7$3.45B8$2.98B9$2.39B9$375M9
Total debt$12.5B13$11.1B14$11.7B15$11.7B16$12.4B16
Cash & equivalents$3.39B17$5.06B18$4.69B19$2.22B20$4.2B20
Diluted shares129.4M127.1M124.4M120.9M120.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,461.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$98.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,023.7

10 shares is a claim on $1,461.36 of net worth that earned you $98.32 and generated $31.04 of cash last year, against $1,023.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 15%FY23 12%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $193.84 and $215.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$193.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.39B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$215.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.39B
Earnings Power Value
$213.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.49B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$179.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $215.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$215.13
Base0.0%$215.13
Bull5.0%$283.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049071-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049071-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049071-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049071-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049071-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049071-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049071-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049071-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049071-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049071-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049071-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049071-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049071-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049071-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049071-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000049071-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049071-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049071-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049071-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000049071-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)