MeritValue

Hub Group, Inc.

HUBGdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hub Group, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 82% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $28,411.26 and $226,256.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$3.5B1$4.23B2$5.34B3$4.2B3$3.95B3
Net income$73.6M4$171.5M5$356.9M6$167.5M6$104M6
Operating cash flow$175M7$252.8M8$458.2M9$422.2M9$194.4M9
Capital expenditure$115.3M10$133M11$219.1M12$140.1M12$50.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$59.6M7$119.9M8$239M9$282.1M9$143.6M9
Total debt$540.7M13$549.5M14$684.9M15$701.4M16$528.7M16
Cash & equivalents$124.5M17$159.8M18$286.6M19$187.3M20$98.2M20
Diluted shares33,54367,78467,11863,95461,104

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$269,212.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17,019.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$23,496.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$86,528.54

10 shares is a claim on $269,212.65 of net worth that earned you $17,019.02 and generated $23,496.33 of cash last year, against $86,528.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY20 5%FY21 10%FY22 18%FY23 8%FY24 5%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+82% shares · 5y

Share count is up 82% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28,411.26 and $226,256.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$226,256.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$239M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$120,491.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$239M
Earnings Power Value
$28,411.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$167.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1,014.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $120,491.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$48,845.01
Base20.0%$120,491.81
Bull20.0%$120,491.81

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004358 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021432 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026866 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004358 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021432 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026866 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004358 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021432 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026866 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004358 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021432 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026866 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002100 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004358 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021432 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026866 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002100 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004358 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021432 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026866 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)