MeritValue

HUBBELL INC

HUBBdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HUBBELL INC earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $145.54 and $680.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.19B1$4.95B2$5.37B3$5.63B3$5.84B3
Net income$399.5M4$545.9M5$751.4M6$779M6$887.1M6
Operating cash flow$513.7M7$636.2M8$880.8M9$991.2M9$1.03B9
Capital expenditure$90.2M10$129.3M11$165.7M12$180.4M12$155.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$423.5M7$506.9M8$715.1M9$810.8M9$874.7M9
Total debt$1.45B13$1.44B14$4.29B15$3.13B16$2.61B16
Cash & equivalents$286.2M17$440.5M18$336.1M19$329.1M20$482.5M20
Diluted shares54.7M54.1M54.0M54.0M53.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$719.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$165.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$163.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$488.3

10 shares is a claim on $719.23 of net worth that earned you $165.81 and generated $163.5 of cash last year, against $488.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 14%FY23 11%FY24 13%FY25 15%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 81% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $145.54 and $680.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$680.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.9%
  • fcfBase$810.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$398.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.9%
  • fcfBase$810.8M
Earnings Power Value
$145.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$751.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$163.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $398.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$176.72
Base16.9%$398.95
Bull20.0%$454.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003792 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005311 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007500 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003792 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005311 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007500 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003792 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005311 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007500 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003792 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005311 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007500 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002875 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003792 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005311 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007500 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002875 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003792 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005311 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007500 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)