MeritValue

HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC

HTZdata completeness 75%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC earns about 50% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$171M1$230M2$237M3$239M3$244M3
Net income$366M4$2.06B5$616M6−$2.86B6−$747M6
Operating cash flow$1.81B7$2.54B8$2.47B9$2.22B9$1.63B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.26B10$943M11$764M12$592M13$565M13
Diluted shares315.0M403.0M326.0M306.0M322.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$14.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$23.2
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$14.25 of net worth that earned you −$23.2 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
50% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 121%FY23 12%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average 50% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$11.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$366M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001657853-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001657853-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001657853-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001657853-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001657853-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001657853-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001657853-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001657853-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001657853-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001657853-23-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001657853-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001657853-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001657853-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)