MeritValue

HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC

HTLDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.4M1$50.7M2$94.8M3$78M3$58.1M3
Net income$79.3M4$133.6M5$14.8M6−$29.7M6−$52.5M6
Operating cash flow$123.4M7$194.7M8$165.3M9$144.3M9$89.3M9
Capital expenditure$132.6M10$160.6M11$208.6M12$109.5M12$156.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.22M7$34.1M8−$43.3M9$34.8M9−$66.9M9
Total debt$013$781.5M14$572.2M15$381.4M16$310M16
Cash & equivalents$157.7M17$49.5M18$28.1M19$12.8M19$18.5M19
Diluted shares79.6M79.0M79.1M78.8M77.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$96.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.73
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$39.78

10 shares is a claim on $96.92 of net worth that earned you −$6.73 and generated −$8.58 of cash last year, against $39.78 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 9%FY23 2%FY24 -1%FY25 -4%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799233-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799233-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799233-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799233-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799233-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799233-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799233-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799233-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799233-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799233-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799233-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799233-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799233-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799233-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799233-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000799233-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799233-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799233-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799233-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)