MeritValue

H World Group Ltd

HTHTdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

H World Group Ltd earns about 26% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.01B1$2.01B2$3.08B3$3.27B4$3.62B5
Net income−$73M6−$264M7$575M8$418M9$726M10
Operating cash flow$210M11$227M12$1.08B13$1.03B14$1.2B15
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.54B16$1.44B17$749M18$743M19$831M20
Cash & equivalents$803M21$520M22$978M23$1.02B24$1.49B25
Diluted shares3.11B3.11B3.35B3.28B3.25B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.24
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.56

10 shares is a claim on $5.64 of net worth that earned you $2.24 last year, against $2.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 -6%FY23 42%FY24 31%FY25 62%

It earned an average 26% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 46% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$418M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-050640 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050695 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050202 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000900 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048058 (Revenues)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-050640 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050695 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050202 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000900 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-050640 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050695 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050202 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000900 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-050640 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050695 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050202 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000900 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-050640 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050695 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050202 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000900 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)