Hilltop Holdings Inc.
HTHdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileHilltop Holdings Inc. earns about 59% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.71 and $69.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $530M1 | $591.1M2 | $838.4M3 | $836.4M3 | $784.1M3 |
| Net income | $374.5M4 | $113.1M5 | $109.6M6 | $113.2M6 | $165.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $765.6M7 | $1.19B8 | $443M9 | $273.9M9 | −$38.7M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $24.8M10 | $9.8M11 | $8.49M12 | $7.13M12 | $16.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $740.9M7 | $1.18B8 | $434.5M9 | $266.8M9 | −$55.5M9 |
| Total debt | $859.4M13 | $970.1M14 | $900M15 | $834M16 | $676.9M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $3.05B17 | $1.65B18 | $1.92B18 | $2.37B18 | $1.25B18 |
| Diluted shares | 81.2M | 70.6M | 65.0M | 65.0M | 62.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $345.79 of net worth that earned you $26.41 and generated −$8.86 of cash last year, against $107.94 of debt.
It earned about 59% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 21% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.71 and $69.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$266.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$266.8M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$113.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $69.97 |
| Base | 0.0% | $69.97 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $84.69 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001160 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001023 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015264 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001160 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001023 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015264 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001160 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015264 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001160 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015264 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001524 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001160 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001023 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015264 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015264 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)