Heartflow, Inc.

HTFLdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Heartflow, Inc. earns about -39% on equity, but has diluted owners by 654% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$87.2M¹	$125.8M¹	$176M¹
Net income	−$95.7M²	−$96.4M²	−$116.8M²
Operating cash flow	−$76.4M³	−$69M³	−$54M³
Capital expenditure	$6.11M⁴	$4.36M⁴	$5.03M⁴
Free cash flow (derived)	−$82.5M³	−$73.4M³	−$59M³
Total debt	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$122.8M⁵	$51.4M⁵	$44.8M⁵
Diluted shares	4.9M	5.4M	36.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$81.58

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$31.69

Free cash flow it threw off

−$16.02

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $81.58 of net worth that earned you −$31.69 and generated −$16.02 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-39% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -39%

It earned an average -39% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+654% shares · 3y

Share count is up 654% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001464521-26-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001464521-26-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001464521-26-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001464521-26-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001464521-26-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)