MeritValue

HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.

HTBdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. earns about 41% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.02 and $66.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.4M1$116.1M2$187.1M3$261.6M3$256.1M3
Net income$15.7M4$35.7M5$44.6M6$54.8M6$64.4M6
Operating cash flow$9.56M7$39.1M8−$32.9M9$45.4M9$49.5M9
Capital expenditure$16.1M10$6.61M11$3.42M12$3.04M12$4.17M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.52M7$32.5M8−$36.3M9$42.4M9$45.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$51M13$105.1M14$303.5M15$279.2M16$324.7M16
Diluted shares16.5M15.8M15.8M17.0M17.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$351.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.49
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $351.14 of net worth that earned you $37.62 and generated $26.49 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 14%FY23 40%FY24 69%FY25 74%

It earned about 41% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.02 and $66.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$66.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$42.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$42.4M
Earnings Power Value
$27.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$44.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$54.39
Base5.0%$62.96
Bull10.0%$73.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001538263-21-000071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001538263-25-000040 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001538263-26-000030 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001538263-23-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001538263-25-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001538263-26-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001538263-23-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001538263-25-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001538263-26-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001538263-23-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001538263-25-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001538263-26-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001538263-22-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001538263-23-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001538263-25-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001538263-26-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)