MeritValue

HERSHEY CO

HSYdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

HERSHEY CO earns about 43% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $84.03 and $172.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.97B1$10.4B2$11.2B3$11.2B3$11.7B3
Net income$1.48B4$1.64B5$1.86B6$2.22B6$883.3M6
Operating cash flow$2.08B7$2.33B8$2.32B9$2.53B9$2.28B9
Capital expenditure$495.9M10$519.5M11$771.1M12$605.9M12$454.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.59B7$1.81B8$1.55B9$1.93B9$1.82B9
Total debt$939.4M13$693.8M14$719.8M15$1.31B16$218.5M16
Cash & equivalents$329.3M17$463.9M18$401.9M18$730.7M18$925.9M18
Diluted shares206.1M205.0M204.4M202.4M202.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$228.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$89.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$10.77

10 shares is a claim on $228.59 of net worth that earned you $43.54 and generated $89.86 of cash last year, against $10.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
43% avg · 5y
FY21 47%FY22 50%FY23 45%FY24 45%FY25 27%

It earned about 43% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 77% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $84.03 and $172.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$172.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.7%
  • fcfBase$1.82B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$161.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.7%
  • fcfBase$1.82B
Earnings Power Value
$84.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.64B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $161.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$131.88
Base4.7%$161.09
Bull9.7%$197.92

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000047111-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000047111-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008586 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000047111-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000047111-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008586 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000047111-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000047111-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008586 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000047111-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000047111-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008586 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000047111-23-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000047111-24-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000047111-25-000014 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008586 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000047111-25-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008586 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)