MeritValue

HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC.

HSTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.41 and $33.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.89B1$4.91B2$5.31B3$5.68B3$6.11B3
Net income−$11M4$633M5$740M6$697M6$765M6
Operating cash flow$292M7$1.42B8$1.44B9$1.5B9$1.51B9
Capital expenditure$293M10$307M11$195M12$260M12$282M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1M7$1.11B8$1.25B9$1.24B9$1.23B9
Total debt$436M13$758M14$746M15$896M16$1.27B16
Cash & equivalents$807M17$667M18$1.14B19$554M19$768M19
Diluted shares710.3M717.5M712.8M704.0M694.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$94.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.35

10 shares is a claim on $94.48 of net worth that earned you $11.02 and generated $17.69 of cash last year, against $18.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 12%FY23 15%FY24 10%FY25 11%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 192% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.41 and $33.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.24B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.24B
Earnings Power Value
$10.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$697M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.92
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.75
Base5.0%$30.92
Bull10.0%$38.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001070750-24-000081 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001070750-25-000071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001070750-26-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001070750-24-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001070750-25-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001070750-26-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001070750-24-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001070750-25-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001070750-26-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001070750-24-000081 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001070750-25-000071 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001070750-26-000054 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003778 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001070750-24-000081 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001070750-25-000071 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001070750-26-000054 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001070750-24-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001070750-25-000071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001070750-26-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)