MeritValue

HENRY SCHEIN INC

HSICdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HENRY SCHEIN INC earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.42 and $66.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.4B1$12.6B2$12.3B3$12.7B3$13.2B3
Net income$631M4$538M5$416M6$390M6$398M6
Operating cash flow$710M7$602M8$500M9$848M9$712M9
Capital expenditure$79M10$96M11$147M12$148M12$139M12
Free cash flow (derived)$631M7$506M8$353M9$700M9$573M9
Total debt$873M13$1.15B13$264M14$650M15$764M15
Cash & equivalents$118M16$117M17$171M17$122M17$156M17
Diluted shares141.8M137.8M131.7M127.8M121.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$266.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$62.77

10 shares is a claim on $266.6 of net worth that earned you $32.7 and generated $47.08 of cash last year, against $62.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 13%FY23 13%FY24 12%FY25 14%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.42 and $66.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$63.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.4%
  • fcfBase$573M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$66.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.4%
  • fcfBase$573M
Earnings Power Value
$35.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$416M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $66.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$62.27
Base1.4%$66.45
Bull6.4%$83.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001000228-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000228-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001000228-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001000228-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000228-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001000228-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001000228-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000228-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001000228-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001000228-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000228-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001000228-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001000228-23-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001000228-25-000014 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001000228-26-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001000228-25-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000228-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)