HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
HSBCdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC earns about 11% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.96 and $56.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $13.9B1 | $16B1 | $24.6B2 | $25B2 | $23.1B2 |
| Operating cash flow | $104.3B3 | $19.4B4 | $39.1B5 | $65.3B5 | $29.8B5 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.09B6 | $1.28B7 | $1.15B8 | $1.34B8 | $1.45B8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $103.2B3 | $18.1B4 | $38B5 | $64B5 | $28.3B5 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $574B9 | $521.7B10 | $490.9B10 | $434.9B10 | $432.9B10 |
| Diluted shares | 20.63B | 20.29B | 19.26B | 17.95B | 17.18B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $115.41 of net worth that earned you $13.47 and generated $16.49 of cash last year.
It earned about 11% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.96 and $56.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$38B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$38B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$23.1B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $56.79 |
| Base | 0.0% | $56.79 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $64.43 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001089113-23-000006 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001089113-26-000010 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001089113-24-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001089113-25-000040 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001089113-26-000010 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001089113-24-000004 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001089113-25-000040 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001089113-26-000010 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001089113-25-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001089113-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalents)