MeritValue

HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC. /DE/

HRTXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC. /DE/ earns about -589% on equity, but has diluted owners by 169196% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$86.3M1$107.7M2$127M3$144.3M3$154.9M3
Net income−$220.7M4−$182M5−$110.6M6−$13.6M6−$20.2M6
Operating cash flow−$203.4M7−$146.9M8−$58.8M9−$22.5M9−$27.6M9
Capital expenditure$3.02M10$1.83M11$1.55M12$1.71M12$317,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$206.4M7−$148.7M8−$60.3M9−$24.2M9−$27.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$90.5M13$15.4M14$28.7M15$25.8M16$28.6M16
Diluted shares98,471108.9M138.1M152.4M166.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.21
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.67
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.86 of net worth that earned you −$1.21 and generated −$1.67 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-589% avg · 5y
FY21 -284%FY22 -1341%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -141%

It earned an average -589% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+169196% shares · 5y

Share count is up 169196% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010603 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028374 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073515 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010603 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028374 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073515 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010603 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028374 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073515 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010603 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028374 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073515 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010603 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029951 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028374 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073515 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)