MeritValue

HEALTHEQUITY, INC.

HQYdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HEALTHEQUITY, INC. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.6 and $212.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$756.6M1$861.7M2$999.6M3$1.2B3$1.31B3
Net income−$44.3M4−$26.1M5$55.7M6$96.7M6$215.2M6
Operating cash flow$141M7$150.7M8$242.8M9$339.9M9$457.1M9
Capital expenditure$8.91M10$3.37M11$1.69M12$2.08M12$1.97M12
Free cash flow (derived)$132.1M7$147.3M8$241.1M9$337.8M9$455.1M9
Total debt$1.86B13$1.85B14$1.75B15$2.11B16$1.91B16
Cash & equivalents$225.4M17$254.3M18$404M19$295.9M20$318.9M20
Diluted shares83.1M84.4M87.0M88.8M87.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$240.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$218.9

10 shares is a claim on $240.9 of net worth that earned you $24.6 and generated $52.03 of cash last year, against $218.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY22 -1%FY23 0%FY24 3%FY25 2%FY26 6%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.6 and $212.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$212.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$337.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$107.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$337.8M
Earnings Power Value
$6.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$55.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $107.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.93
Base20.0%$107.65
Bull20.0%$107.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001428336-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001428336-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001428336-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001428336-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001428336-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001428336-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001428336-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001428336-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001428336-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001428336-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001428336-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001428336-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001428336-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001428336-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001428336-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001428336-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001428336-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001428336-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001428336-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001428336-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)