MeritValue

HP INC

HPQdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HP INC earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.99 and $34.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$63.5B1$62.9B2$53.7B3$53.6B3$55.3B3
Net income$6.54B4$3.13B5$3.26B6$2.78B6$2.53B6
Operating cash flow$6.41B7$4.46B8$3.57B9$3.75B9$3.7B9
Capital expenditure$582M10$765M11$593M12$592M12$897M12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.83B7$3.7B8$2.98B9$3.16B9$2.8B9
Total debt$15.7B13$22.4B14$19.3B15$20.8B16$20.2B16
Cash & equivalents$4.3B17$3.15B18$3.11B19$3.24B20$3.69B20
Diluted shares1.22B1.05B1.00B989.0M953.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$3.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$211.72

10 shares is a claim on −$3.63 of net worth that earned you $26.54 and generated $29.38 of cash last year, against $211.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 69%FY22 21%FY23 23%FY24 19%FY25 18%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.99 and $34.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.98B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.98B
Earnings Power Value
$34.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.13B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.35
Base0.0%$27.35
Bull5.0%$38.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000047217-23-000100 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000047217-24-000080 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000047217-25-000071 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000047217-23-000100 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000047217-24-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000047217-25-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000047217-23-000100 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000047217-24-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000047217-25-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000047217-23-000100 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000047217-24-000080 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000047217-25-000071 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000047217-23-000075 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000047217-23-000100 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000047217-24-000080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0000047217-25-000071 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000047217-23-000075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000047217-23-000100 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000047217-24-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0000047217-25-000071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)